经典重译之股票大作手回忆录(219)
原文(249)：
I bought fifty thousand bales．Sure enough，it moved up．And sure enough，as soon as I stopped buying it stopped going up．Then it began to settle back to where it was when I began buying it．I got out and it stopped going down．I thought I was now much nearer the starting signal，and presently I thought I'd start it myself again．I did．The same thing happened．I bid it up，only to see it go down when I stopped．I did this four or five times until I finally quit in disgust．It cost me about two hundred thousand dollars．I was done with it．It wasn't very long after that when it began to go up and never stopped till it got to a price that would have meant a killing for me—if I hadn't been in such a great hurry to start．
This experience has been the experience of so many traders so many times that I can give this rule：In a narrow market，when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range，there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be—up or down．The thing to do is to watch the market，read the tape to determine the limits of the get-nowhere prices，and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction．A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him．Never argue with it or ask it for reasons or explanations．Stock-market post-mortems don't pay dividends．
其他版本译文(249)：
我买了5万包棉花，它果然涨了。我一停止买进，它也就不再继续上涨，接着跌落到了我开始买进时的价格。我退出来，它也就不跌了。我认为我现在更接近出发点了，于是我立刻认为我应该再度出发。我也这样做了。同样的事情又发生了一次，我抬高了价格，一停止买进我就看到价格下跌。我来来回回这样做了四五次，最终只好放弃，一共赔了20万。没过多久，棉花又开始涨了，居然涨到了让我恨死自己的程度，如果我不那么急着开始该多好啊。
很多玩家都经历过很多次这样的事情，所以我定了一条原则：市场窄幅波动时，价格波动范围很小，要预估下一个大波动是往上还是往下，这个实在没什么意义。应该做的事情是观察市场，分析走向，判定浮动上下线，在价格没有突破上下线时，千万不要有所行动。投机的人必须要一心一意靠市场获利，而非坚持等大盘形势与自己的预估一样。永远不要向综合行情叫板，不要询问理由或解释。事后替股市解剖验尸没有任何好处。
我的译文(249)：
果然，我买了五万包，其价格应声而涨。
可我一停手，它就不涨了，然后开始回落，又回到了我第一笔买入时的价格，等我止损平仓后，它又不跌了。
我觉得它随时可能启动，而我几乎已经把这个机会抓到手里了。
不久之后，我想用我自己的力量再推它一把，于是同样的事情我又做了一遍，而它同样的反应也又发生了一回，我一买入它就上涨，我一停手，它就下跌。
就这样折腾了四五回，结果都一样，浪费了我大约二十万美元，最终我气急败坏的放弃了它。
可之后没多久，它就开始一路不停地上涨，其涨幅足以让我大赚一笔，但由于我操之过急、心态急躁，完美的与这笔看似唾手可得的财富擦肩而过。
很多交易者都多次经历过我这样的遭遇，以至于我可以给出这样一条规则：不要参与狭窄的盘整。当价格局限在一个狭窄的交易区间里上下波动时，预测价格突破的方向没有意义。该做的是观察市场，解读行情纸带，确定价格波动的上下限，并拿定主意，除非价格突破了上下限，就没必要关注。
一个投机者必须关心的是从市场中赚钱，而不是认定行情走势必须符合他的预期。永远不要和市场争论，或者要求它给出理由或解释。在股市里放马后炮，无利可图！
引用依据：
1. Edwin Lefèvre: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
2. 《股票大作手回忆录》（[美] 埃德温·勒菲弗 著，汤前燕 译）
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